Indonesia and the Demographic Transition?

Many people don't realize that Indonesia is the 4th most populated country in the world, after China, India, and the United States. Indonesia's population is young and growing, two factors that have long-term implications for policy-makers in the country.  A topic that frequently comes up in discussions of economic and social development is the role of population growth in increasing or decreasing the prosperity of a country.  Today we're going to have a look at some basic principles of population geography, including a model that is one of the mainstays of introductory human geography courses.  We'll examine the applicability of this model along with it's strengths and weaknesses, and then we'll try to apply the model to Indonesia.

source: wikipedia

Lesser developed countries, as a general rule, tend to have higher rates of population growth than more developed countries.  There are, of course, exceptions to the rule, but in general there is a pattern.  Have a look at the two maps I've included to the left.  The first is a global map of population growth.  The second map shows global figures for the Human Development Index, a measure the UN came up with to calculate development (1).  As you can see, areas with lower population growth tend to have higher human development indexes.

The problem with high population growth is that more people require the government to build more schools, health facilities, sewers, and a host of other social services.  If the population grows to rapidly, the government can't keep up and thus the overall standard of living decreases.  In addition, rapid population growth can outstrip the economy's growth, making it difficult for all of the new people to find jobs when they come of age.  Lack of employment or educational opportunities for a large younger generation can often lead to civil unrest (2).  In Indonesia government officials with the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) have raised concerns about potential problems related to overpopulation.  Sudibyo Alimoeso of BKKBN recently warned that if the population continues to grow at the current rate of 1.49 percent, it will reach 450 million by 2045.  Alimoeso warned taht a "grand design is needed for the revitalization of the national family planning program".  But how realistic are these concerns?

An Introduction to Population Geography

To analyze population change, it helps to be familiar with a few terms used by population geographers and demographers to describe the structure of a population.  Crude birth rate (CBR) refers to the number of babies born annually per 1000 people in the population, whereas crude death rate (CDR) refers to the number of deaths per 1000 people in a given year.  Thus CBR-CDR gives us the growth rate, since if you have more babies being born than people dying, the population will increase (3).  It turns out that if we look at the change of these numbers over time, a pattern emerges.

Warren Thompson developed a model to describe the progression from high growth to low (and potentially negative) growth in 1929.  He used observed changes in birth and death rates in industrialized countries over a period of 200 years.  What he found is that as countries industrialize and become wealthier, the death rate drops, followed by a later drop in the birth rate.  This model has come to be known as the Demographic Transition, and I've included a chart detailing it below.  In the demographic transition there are 5 stages (4), each with different fertility and mortality characteristics.

http://hs-geography.ism-online.org/2010/09/07/the-demographic-transition-model/

1. Stage one.  The first stage is characterized by high birth and death rates.  Sometimes the death rate exceeds the birth rate; overall there is very slow population growth.  For most of human history we've been in stage one.  Because of the high death rates and the natural human drive to sustain the species, some population geographers have theorized the emergence of pro-natal values, or practices and beliefs that encourage childbirth.  This would include adolescent marriage, rigid gender roles, and fertility cults.  According to Demographic Transition Theory, every country in the world was in stage one until about the end of the 18th century.
2.  Stage two.  In stage two the death rate begins a slow and steady decline (3).  This is due to improvements in food security brought about by agricultural advances as well as improvements in public health and better medical technology.  However, because pro-natal values have "inertia" and don't immediately disappear, the birthrate remains high, and so the population increases rapidly.
3. Stage three.  In stage three the birth rate begins to decline since more children survive, and thus fewer babies are required to ensure a sufficient number "make it".  Although the birthrate is declining, since the death rate has not yet stabilized (it too is still falling), the population continues to grow relatively rapidly, but the rate of growth declines. 
4. Stage four.  In stage four both the death rate and birthrate have stabilized at low levels, and so the population again experiences very low population growth, as in stage 1.  
5. Stage five.  This stage was not part of the original model, because the conditions found in stage 5 couldn't have been predicted when the model was being formulated.  But demographers have noticed that in an increasing number of populations there are signs that the population is actually (or soon will be) decreasing.  This is because low fertility has predominated for several decades, and now the population is aging, and so there are more deaths than births.  This is not due to any deficiencies in healthcare or public safety, nor does it indicate the presence of natural disasters.  Rather the declining population is due to the historical development of the structure of the population itself. 
   

Currently Indonesia has a population of around 240 million people, with a growth rate of 1.49 percent.  Over the past ten years the population has grown by around 33 million people.  Growth at 1.49% is still growth, but it's not nearly as fast as some other countries.  So to figure out if the demographic transition model can be applied to Indonesia, I decided to look at the statistics (5).

Looking at these numbers we can make several observations.  In general, after 1905 there is a slow increase in the rate of population growth.  This would suggest that living conditions and standards of health and public safety were gradually improving.  There is a dramatic decline in 1945 and 1950, which is attributable to a decline in birth rates and an increase in death rates experienced during the Japanese occupation in World War II and the war for independence against the Dutch.  After 1950 the growth rate shoots up, which would be consistent with stage 2 of the demographic transition.  Then after 1970 the growth rate begins to decline, even though the population is still growing, which is consistent with stage 3 of the DT.  In addition, we have some anecdotal statistics concerning other indicators that suggest infant and child mortality along with fertility all experienced a dramatic decline over the course of 30 years.  The decline in fertility is consistent with stage 3 of the DT, whereas the declines in child mortality are more consistent with stage 2.  But overall the numbers seem to suggest that Indonesia has gone through most of the DT and is currently in stage 3. 

More than "pro-natal" values?

source: wikipedia

When comparing instances of the demographic transition across countries we tend to notice several differences.  Here I want to focus on how rapidly the CDR and CBR decline.  In European countries that first entered the demographic transition, we find that the decline in death rates is gradual, as in the example of Sweden to the right.  This is because advances in medicine and public health happened gradually; they had to be discovered over time.  However, in countries that entered the demographic transition later, we find that the decline in death rates is much steeper, meaning it happened much more rapidly.  Look at the graph of Sri Lanka to the left.  As you can see, there is a fairly dramatic decline in the death rate most notable in the 1940s.  This is because instead of discovering medical advances, technology can be shared, thus leading to drastic declines over the short term.  This has the effect of greatly increasing the rate of growth, because there is no corresponding decline in the birth rate.

We also find variations when we look at how rapidly the birth rate decreases.  In my experience, most explanations of the demographic transition have tended to overemphasize the role of pro-natal values, but it turns out there is more at work than this. Research over the past several decades indicates that the relative status of women in society is very important in determining the rate of decline.  Thus in Indonesia, where women have traditionally worked outside the home and have long had a larger role in "breadwinning" than some other countries, the birthrate seems to decline more rapidly, and so the period of high growth doesn't last as long.

What does all this mean for Indonesia?  Well it suggests that the population growth rate will probably continue to decline.  But does this mean the country should neglect its family planning program?  Of course not.  However, an understanding of demographic geography can help to design intelligent, forward-looking policies.

NOTES

(1)  The HDI looks at life expectancy, average years of schooling, and income per person.  It is thought to be a more comprehensive picture of development than economic indicators.


(2)  For an interesting and path-breaking exposition on the connection between large youth populations and civil unrest read up on the Youth Bulge, a concept pioneered by Professor of Geography Emeritus (and one of my mentors) Gary Fuller of the University of Hawai'i.


(3)  These numbers don't consider immigration. For an interesting take on migration and the demographic transition check out he Zelinsky Model of Mobility Transition. 

(4)  Most treatments of the demographic transition use 3 or 4 stages; recently the 5th stage has been added but isn't found in all texts.  I think the 5th stage adds to the explanatory value of the model, so I use it.  Some demographers are now suggesting that there is even a 6th stage in the demographic transition. 


(5)  In my spreadsheet you can see columns for year, population, growth rate, infant mortality, under 5 mortality, fertility, and some birth and death rates.  I calculated the growth rates based on the statistics I found.  Numbers in black (and green) come from a source I presume to reliable that draws information from Indonesian government statistics.  I highlighted some of the numbers in green though because those growth rates are averages over 20 or 30 years, and I consider those averages to be less-than-reliable.  Numbers in red are from the website of the Indonesian bureau of statistics.  Numbers in blue are from another website.  In general I doubt the reliability of pre-1950 census numbers for Indonesia, but I have seen analyses that suggest the colonial census takers were fairly rigorous in the 20th century.  

REFERENCES AND FOR FURTHER READING:

Dangalle, Nimal.  1982.  Demographic Transition in Sri Lanka.  Sri Lanka Journal of Social Sciences 5:2 pp1-29.  Found here.    

Nitisastro, Widjojo.  1970.  Population Trends in Indonesia.  Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.

Indonesia Bureau of Statistics

The Ancient Kingdoms of the Indonesian Archipelago

As I look back on my last few postings I notice that I've tended to be a little negative about some things, and thus the casual reader might be distracted from the reality that Indonesia is truly an amazing place; a place well worth knowing more about. So today's post is going to be about some of the old kingdoms that form part of the rich and fascinating history of the country. These kingdom were heavily influenced by their geography, and so we'll use that as a starting point.

Southeast Asia is usually divided by geographers into two sub-region: mainland Southeast Asia (consisting of Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam) and "insular" or maritime Southeast Asia (consisting of the island states of Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia). Geographers make generalizations about the two sub-regions; mainland SEA has mountain-lowland divisions, long rivers that promote rice cultivation, and are populated by speakers of languages from the Mon-Khmer, Sino-Tibetan, and Thai-Kadai language families, whereas insular SEA cultures tend to be more ocean-oriented, with people speaking closely-related languages of the Malayo-Polynesian family. In general societies of mainland SEA have been more inward-looking, whereas those of insular SEA have long had contact with other realms.

The Geography of Empire

For a significant portion of recorded history, two of the richest (in terms of culture and material wealth) poles of civilization have been China and India. Trade between these two regions emerged thousands of years ago and at various stages involved other areas as well, including Persia, Rome, Europe, and others, but much of the trade occurred over land via tortuous and dangerous trade routes through Central Asia. Sea trade between India and China was hampered by the Malay Peninsula, a more than 1000 kilometer long finger of land extending from what is now Thailand and Burma down to the island of Singapore. Goods had to be portaged across the isthmus (1) of Kra. However, sometime around the 4th century A.D. Malay sailors developed an all-sea route between India and China. This new route was a faster way to transport silks from China to the western regions. The cultures of the Malay Peninsula and the island of Sumatra only had to offer port facilities and safety from pirates for trade to flourish along the new route. They also introduced new goods to the world market, including cloves, nutmeg, and mace. These spices, most of which only grew on certain islands because of very specific climate requirements, became extremely profitable for the people of the islands of what would become Indonesia. Trade in spices and control of the narrow sea lanes of the Strait of Melacca gave rise to the first of the great ancient kingdoms of the Indonesian archipelago, Sri Vijaya (Sriwijaya).

Sri Vijaya, which means "glorious victory", emerged during the 6th century around present day Palembang on Sumatra. Sri Vijaya was originally one of several small riverine kingdoms athwart the trading route on the coast of Sumatra. Each of these small kingdoms centered on a river; the inhabitants downstream provided port services and sometimes coerced passing ships into anchoring and paying taxes. They also served as collection points for goods produced upstream. It's not certain how Sri Vijaya came to dominate its neighbors, but some historians speculate that the large area of the fertile valley of the Musi river helped the Sri Vijayans produce more food, which in turn enabled them to support a large navy. For five centuries the Sri Vijayans controlled the China trade, with goods such as porcelain, jade and silk from China, textiles from India, and sandlewood, spices, and resins from the Moluccas. One ancient traveler's account of Sri Vijaya saya that the kingdom was so rich, every year the king's subjects would throw bricks of gold into the river as an offering (2). Sri Vijaya was an important center for Mahayana Buddhist learning, and monks from as far away as China and India came there to study.

Sri Vijaya is an example of a maritime empire. The kingdoms that emerged in Indonesia consisted of two types: thalasocracies like Sri Vijaya, whose rise and fall depended on trading relations and strong navies, and the inland, rice-producing states that emerged mainly on the island of Java. The latter weren't as involved in trading but rather developed sophisticated agricultural societies. The first major example of the rice kingdom, Mataram, arose in central Java around the middle of the 8th century. The Mataram rulers built the Dieng temples I mentioned in a previous post before moving east to the area around present-day Jogja. Mataram is not the original name of the kingdom but rather refers to the geographic area around Jogja (3). The Mataram kingdom collapsed in the 11th century due to military pressure from Sri Vijaya.

The greatest empire of insular Southeast Asia, Mahapahit, emerged out of the decline of another kingdom in the 13th century. Majapahit ("bitter fruit") ruled over much of what is now Indonesia and the Malay Peninsula. Through cunning the founder of Majapahit, Vijaya, manipulated an invading Mongol fleet of 1000 ships and 20,000 soldiers (4) into eliminating his rivals before turning on them and driving them out of Java. Majapahit gave rise to two heroes of Indonesian history that are still revered today. The first of these, Gajah Mada, served as prime minister (patih) and regent from 1331 to 1364 and greatly expanded the rule of Majapahit, extended authority to neighboring islands. One of Indonesia's major universities (Universitas Gajah Mada) in Jogja is named for him. The second major figure is Hayam Wuruk, who worked with Gajah Mada to expand the empire. Hayam Wuruk is known as a patron of the arts and an avid performer of traditional Javanese music and dance. The fact that Majapahit controlled most of the islands that would become Indonesia was used as evidence by independence leaders such as Sukarno (5) that there was a historical precedent for the nation of Indonesia.

This is just a short introduction to the many kingdoms that have emerged in Indonesia over the past 1500 years. There are many others, including Tarumanagara, Jambi, the Sailendras, and Singhasair. They all have fascinating stories and all contributed to the rich historical heritage of Indonesia.

(1) An isthmus is a narrow piece of land connecting two larger areas of land. Can you use a world map to find other isthmuses?

(2) According to Shaffer (see reference below), when the king died his successor would dredge the gold out of the river and distribute it to influential members of court to cement support during the transition.

(3) One should take care not to confuse this earlier Mataram kingdom, which was a Hindu kingdom, with the later Mataram Sultanate, an Islamic kingdom that emerged in the 16th century.

(4) The fleet had come to punish Vijaya's father, Kertanagara, king of the defunct Singasari kingdom, because Kertanagara refused to pay tribute to Kublai Khan, who had recently become emperor of China.

(5) Sukarno would go on to become Indonesia's first president.

REFERENCES AND FOR FURTHER READING

SarDesai, D.R. 1997. Southeast Asia: Past and Present. Boulder, CO: Westview. 422pp.

Shaffer, Lynda Norene. 1996. Maritime Southeast Asia to 1500. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe. 121pp.

Air Asia: "At Least We Didn't Crash!"

Man what a day I had yesterday. On my last full day in Indonesia I was forced to travel from Jakarta to Jogjakarta to get a re-entry permit so I could come back without having to endure the several-week-long nightmare I'm going to detail in the next post I write. My flight out of Jakarta for Taiwan was scheduled to leave at 2.20pm the following day. So I booked a flight on Air Asia at 8 in the morning, scheduled to land in Jakarta at 9am. I had left my bags, including my computer, all my clothes, and everything else at my buddy's apartment, figuring that I would surely have enough time to retrieve them and return to the airport. I was only going to be in Jogja for the day, and the stingy b*%&!@s at Air Asia charge you for checked baggage.

I arrived at the airport and everything went smoothly. I fell asleep as we were taxiing down the runway. When I awoke we were landing, and I thought to myself "man that was quick", and was getting all set to get off the plane when I noticed that we were landing back in JOGJA. "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!". It turns out that someone had forgotten to flip a switch or check the oil or something. So they called their engineer, and within about 20 minutes the plane was ready. Still time to do what I need to do. But guess what? The Indonesian Air Force Academy, which uses Adi Sucipto airport in Jogja, at that moment was having some sort of exercise, and they closed the airport for 30 minutes. So we had to wait. And wait. And when the airport finally reopened (after an hour) the Air Asia folks discovered something else wrong, and so we had to sit on the tarmac for 30 more minutes. All tolled we got to Jakarta at around noon, 2 hours 45 minutes late, leaving me not enough time get to Kuningan to get my bags before my afternoon flight (1). What was I going to do? My computer, my clothes, my phone, my keys, everything...gone.

However, in this life if you spend any more than 2-3 minutes feeling sorry for yourself before setting about to address the problem you're just digging a deeper hole, making it harder to eventually put the whole thing behind you. So I tried to figure out how I might be able to engineer the transport of my luggage to the airport. Of course, all the plans I came up with failed. So eventually I came to the tough conclusion that I was going to have to leave everything in Jakarta and pick it up when I get back in August. At first this seemed like an impossibility, but then as I thought about it became clear to me that there's nothing there I can't live without. The computer is probably the most inconvenient, but fortunately I brought a backup harddrive just incase I needed to access any data in Jogja. I've got an extra set of keys in Honolulu, and the phone, well, nobody calls me anyway. So I'll be alright. But it's definitely inconvenient, and there will be hundreds of small problems that crop up over the next couple of weeks because of this. I'm still alive, though, and I'm going home, which is the important thing.

I don't know why I put any faith in Air Asia in the first place. Because if something can go wrong here, it will. That's no joke. Airline management in Indonesia is so bad it's comical. But I still fly (because I have to), and for some reason I still expect them to be on time. I think to myself "it can't happen again, can it?" But it does. The problem is that the standard of service is so bad, it's so beyond your expectations in a bad way that your brain just can't cope with the crappiness of it. Hope springs eternal and despair is born anew.

So as a public service to all the would-be travellers, I've created the following guide to airlines in Indonesia. You can use this guide to pick the appropriate airline consistent with the level of misery, discomfort, and inconvenience you want to experience. Here goes:

Air Asia: A budget airline operating out of Singapore or Malaysia (what's the difference?). Among the cheapest, and probably among the most reliable, but I hate them. Plus they are arrogant ("Now Everyone Can Fly"; "The Best Airline in the World!") and they have sneaky ways to trick you into paying additional charges on their website.

Batavia is a big Indonesian carrier. I've flown with them a couple of times, and they seemed to be okay; only one of the two flights was late.

Garuda: Overpriced and undercleaned. This is Indonesia's "flagship carrier". Of course, they're not allowed to fly planes to Europe or the US. Hmmmm....

Lion Air: Lion Air is a budget option and they have frequent flights, but they are late about 80% of the time (in my experience) and their prices fluctuate wildly within hours. Still, as near as I can tell, this maybe the most popular carrier in Indonesia

Mandiri: Not bad. Comparable to Batavia.

Merpati: Crashes frequently. 'Nuff said.

Sri Vijaya: I've never flown SV, but chances are they suck.

Wings Air: Chances are if you have to go out to the eastern portion of Indonesia you'll be flying on one of Wings' turboprops. They are okay, but the planes smell funny and make odd noises.

But thank God for Taipei. That's where I am now. I think I mentioned in a previous post that China Air books transit passengers without charge in the Novatel near the airport if there is room available, and thankfully this time there was. The Novatel claims to be "5-star", but to tell you the truth it's probably closer to 4.6. They are seriously lacking in gold-leaf accoutrements. But it will do in a pinch. So I traded in some dollars for Chang-Kai-Sheckles (2) and made my way over to the hotel. After a good night's sleep I woke up to enjoy the wonderful complementary breakfast buffet, which includes as much bacon as you can eat.

Now I feel much better and the world doesn't seem so out to get me as it did before. It's important to focus on the positive things, like big mountains of bacon and the free nippers of 15-year-old scotch you can sample at the airport here. So bearing that in mind, I've come up with a new model for my new arch-nemesis Air Asia: "At Least We Didn't Crash!"

(1) Probably the funniest thing about this is that the Air Asia cabin crew had the gall to charge people for refreshments and food after causing them to sit in the hot airplane in Jogja for 2.5 hours. Nice, eh? High-class folks, those Air Asia peeps.

(2) Chang-Kai-Sheckles (CKS) is the currency in Taiwan.

Suka Dan Duka Kehidupan Pahlawan Devisa: Challenges Facing Overseas Workers in Indonesia

Today’s post is inspired by the fate of Ruyati, an Indonesian national who was beheaded in Saudi Arabia last week for murdering her boss. Ruyati had allegedly been tortured, starved, and denied payment by her boss, which evidently drove her to commit her crime, but details are still sketchy. The government of Saudi Arabia has repeated flaunted established cannons of international relations (and law) by refusing to inform the government of Indonesia that Ruyati was to be executed or to provide any other information about the case. Consequently, Ruyati’s family only found out after the execution and was unable to provide legal and moral support. This story has provoked public outcry in Indonesia, but Ruyati is only one of dozens of Indonesians trapped by circumstances beyond their control in a far-off land.

Indonesia is a major international supplier of cheap labor, sending millions of people abroad each year (tenaga kerja Indonesia, TKI) to earn money working in low-skilled occupations such as construction and housekeeping. Nations like Saudi Arabia and Malaysia benefit from the cheap labor, because the Indonesians do work that other people aren't willing to do (or demand a higher wage to do). These migrant laborers generate billions of dollars a year in income, which is generally sent back to Indonesia as remittances. Remittances refers to money sent home by immigrants to support families, and is such an important part of the Indonesian economy that the migrant labors have publicly been declared pahlawan devisa, or "heroes of foreign exchange". Remittances have come to be viewed as an important part of development financing; in fact the total amount remitted by migrant laborers worldwide by far outweighs money provided by wealthy nations to developing countries as foreign aid. Remittances are now the second biggest inflow to many developing nations (behind foreign direct investment, FDI). According to the World Bank, remittances worldwide totaled $325 million in 2010. There are positive and negative aspects to this dynamic. Remittances are direct payments, and so they enter the economy without the complex (and expensive) bureaucratic and regulatory process that characterizes foreign aid. The decision as to how to spend the remittances is made at the lowest level rather than in the offices of NGOs and multi-lateral agencies. However, if a region receives too much money in the form of remittances it can increase inflation, because there are "too many dollars chasing too few goods".


But there is a human aspect as well (1), and the story of Ruyati and the countless others that constantly appear in the Indonesian media remind us of that. Migrant workers face a number of problems in their temporary homes, including

• Discrimination. Migrant workers are often the target of prejudice and differential treatment in the hosting nation
• Poor working and living conditions. Migrant workers are often forced to live in substandard and/or overcrowded conditions and often lack access to basic hygienic services
• Physical, mental, and sexual abuse. Migrant workers frequently fall pray to abuse from bosses and rape/sexual assault is an all-to-frequent occurrence.
• Deception and changing contractual obligations. A common tactic of human traffickers is to attract workers (especially females) with promises of jobs as housekeepers or care providers. However, once the potential workers reach the destination country they are forced into the sex industry.
• Withheld pay or sudden pay deductions. Migrant workers often have their passports and other official documents withheld by their employers, essentially making them hostages. Moreover, in many cases the employer makes arbitrary deductions or completely withholds the employee's pay due to perceived and/or contrived failings.
• Unfamiliarity with laws and policies of the hosting country. Migrant workers often cannot speak the language of the hosting country and thus have difficulties navigating the legal-bureaucratic system to lodge complaints or seek protection. Moreover, in many host countries, advocacy for migrant workers is lacking.

This is an important geography topic because geographers have always been interested in flows of people, money, and goods. Geographers are also interested in networks, and migrant laborers create networks of money and movement through their actions. Understanding these flows can help us situate them in their larger political and economic context and can help policy makers craft laws and programs to address the needs and concerns of migrants. Geographers classify migrants into two broad categories with some general but distinct characteristics: long-term and temporary. One of the main questions geographers ask about migration is why it happens. Migrants are generally motivated by two sets of factors: push factors and pull factors. These are pretty intuitive; push factors exist at the point of origin and serve to drive the migrants to seek better opportunities. Push factors would include low employment opportunities, poor environmental conditions, political repression, and so on. Pull factors occur at the destination country and attract people. These include work opportunities, freedom, etc. Push and pull factors generally work together to drive migration; that is, a combination of factors both at the origin and destination contribute to the decision to migrate. This concept was first published by Everett Lee in 1966 and has become part of the standard curriculum in introductory geography courses. I’ve included a diagram from the original article below; see my footnote for a description of intervening obstacles (2).

Ernest Ravenstein also formulate a number of general principles regarding migration in his seminal "Laws of Migration" in 1889. Among these general rules are:

• Migration is a step-by-step process starting with places close by extending later to places further away
• Most migrants move to places relatively close. This is generally interpreted to mean that most migration occurs internally (within the country) rather than externally (to foreign countries).
• There is always a counter-current of return migration, but this return current is often weaker than people leaving.
• Most migration involves movement from the countryside to the city
• Females are more likely to migrate short distances, whereas males are more likely to travel longer distances.

There are different types of migration, and the applicability of these principles depends on the type of migration being discussed. For an interesting project, you can identify a nation that experiences significant in-migration or out-migration. Examples would include Mexico, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Can you locate data from the UN, the World Bank, or other online sources to determine the nature of the migration from these countries? Why does this migration occur, what does it tell us about the country, and what sorts of obstacles do the migrants face?

From this post we can understand how flows of migrants are an important part of the global economy. We can also understand the challenges faced by migrants, which gives us a better appreciation of what some people go through in the search for a brighter future.

(1) The picture to the right is of Sumiati, an Indonesian national working as a housekeeper in Saudi Arapia. Sumiati's boss used scissors to torture her. She ended up requiring urgent care at an emergency medical facility.

(2) In the past distance has been an important part of analysis of migrants, but “globalization” seems to have modified and even rendered obsolete traditional theories about the connection between distance and migrant flows. Through time-space compression globalization has made travel easier and cheaper, and it has also dampened the effect of “intervening obstacles”.


REFERENCES AND FOR FURTHER READING

Lee, Everett. 1966. A Theory of Migration. Demography 3:1, pp47-57.

Ravenstein, Ernest. 1885. The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society XLVIII, part II: 183

Migrant Care Indonesia (in Indonesian)

Scenes From the Back of an Ojek (Part I)

One of the many problems plaguing Jakarta is traffic jams, known locally as "macet". One way around the traffic jams (literally) is to hire a motorcycle taxi, or ojek. Ojeks are nimble, maneuverable, and they can cut right through the traffic. The downside is that they are dirty and dangerous. But you have to take the bad with the good, right?

On a recent afternoon I made my way out of the bubble and hired an ojek for an hour-long tour. The driver asked me where I wanted to go, and so I told him I wanted to see some crowded street markets and then get in a traffic jam. He was slightly taken aback by this, because usually people try to avoid traffic. But he acquiesced to my project after I explained to him that I wanted to create a photoessay describing the ups and downs of the life of an ojek driver (and after I showed him 50,000 rupiah). The following pictures provide a glimpse into the day-to-day lives of everyday folks in the megacity.

Like I mentioned previously, ojeks are able to cut through traffic jams fairly easily. There's usually a current of ojeks and other motorcycles flowing through stopped traffic. They accumulate at traffic lights and other bottlenecks, and when the way is clear they speed through the intersection in a big hurry to get to the next obstacle. Ojeks, like gases, expand to fill the available space. As I was riding around on the back of the bike today I was thinking of traffic as a viscous fluid, with cars and trucks thickening and often stopping the flow. In this way ojeks increase the liquidity of traffic. They are also able to pass through alleys and trails (and sidewalks) that can't be traversed by cars, as you can see in the first picture to the right. This alley is near the bubble and is where we began our odyssey. In the second picture you can see a big pile of garbage, which is the state bird of the special district of Jakarta. We passed through a few markets and went over a couple rivers. In the third picture you can see our first impasse of the day....an SUV trying to enter the narrow alley we were traversing. Car people often don't like to make way in Jakarta; it seems to be a kind of class warfare. This particular driver didn't seem to understand that he wasn't going to be able to make it home if he didn't first let us get out of the alley. But finally we squeezed by and moved into Menteng, a very upscale neighborhood in central Jakarta. This is where President Obama lived when he was in Jakarta, but he says he didn't live in one of the ritzy places. You can see a blurred picture of a gated home in the 4th picture. That's as close as your going to get. Menteng's a pleasant place to have a walk. You can also challenge your math skills by attempting to count the number of servants running willy-nilly to pick up caviar and sleeping security guards.

Besides ojeks, there are a number of other forms of for-hire transportation. The most familiar are taxi cabs, but these are also the most expensive and are beyond the reach of most regular folks. There are innumerable buses as well, but these stay on the main roads and don't really link the innards of the kampung with the major arteries of the city. Thus there are other options to meet the needs of you average Joko, Bambang, and Budi. First up we've got a mikrolet. These modified trucks are found in a number of cities in Indonesia and ply regular routes indicated by a number on the window. Besides mikrolets you can also ride a bemo (short for "becak motor", which also operates along a fixed route. Bemos are a bit lower on the ladder of comfort than the mikrolet, but what they lack in safety the make up for in the Citroen-esque ugliness of their design. Bemos were originally part of a Japanese development project and were introduced in 1962. They are also limited to certain parts of town. The next conveyance you see is a bajaj. These were originally developed in India and can be found in Thailand as well (tuk-tuk). I've never ridden one of these in Indonesia because, although they are cheaper than taxis, they are wider than motorcycles and thus aren't as maneuverable and can't get through the same tight spaces as an ojek. On top of that they are really loud and they don't seem to have mufflers. Bajajs are restricted to certain parts of the city. They have a sign on the side that tells what part of the city they are authorized to travel through. The government said in 2001 that they were going to phase out the bajaj, but here we are ten years later and Jakarta is still lousy with them. I hate these damn things.





On the way back to the bubble we encountered something I didn't expect to see: a herd of cattle. These particular livestock specimens were feasting on the nutritious bounty of trash that has been carefully strewn about the side of the road. And in the last picture you can see my new friend "Mr. Jay", who did a really outstanding job of getting me in and out of traffic. Mr. Jay told me he's originally from Surabaya (Indonesia's second largest city), but he moved to Jakarta 21 years ago to make money. He's been driving an ojek for 10 years now. He said the money he makes fluctuates pretty widely from day to day and it's hard to plan a budget. However, on most days he earns less than $10 and admits that it's hard to make a living as an ojek driver. Part of this is due to the fact that anyone with a motorcycle can be an ojek driver; there are no required permits.

In addition to the pictures, I shot a couple of short movies with my crummy digicam. These will be screened a Cannes next year. The first video, "Traffic 1", provides a taste of what your in for when you ride an ojek through town. Pay attention to the toxic fumes coming out of the bajajs. Then notice how you encounter people going the wrong way, pedestrians, and street vendors. My personal favorite part of this short is the heartbreak experienced when a shortcut evaporates....it really is a deflating experience.

The next video starts off on the sidewalk, which my driver used to get around a broken-down bus. Watch out for the big hole in the ground! I think this video really highlights the influence of one of my cinematic heroes, Ingmar Bergman. If you really look close, you can see a kernal of Kurosawa as well.

Stay tuned for the next installment of "Scenes From the Back of an Ojek". I've included some sneak peaks below.

REFERENCES AND FOR FURTHER READING:

A good site on Bemos (in Indonesian) can be found here.

GeSMOGraphy! Jakarta's Smog Problem and the Temperature Inversion

Sitting here in the bubble waiting on papers to clear, I was at something of a loss as to what to write about. Then it hit me, like a ton of particulate matter suspended in the lower atmosphere: I’ll write about the dense layer of smog that perpetually blankets the Greater Jakarta Metropolitan area. I noticed a layer of low-lying clouds on the plane ride from Jogja to Jakarta last week extended out 20-30 minutes of flight time, which must be around 100 miles (on approach). I’m hesitant to say with certainty that this regional cover is smog rather than something natural, but it wouldn’t surprise me. The megacity of 20 million belches out so much pollution on a daily basis that it obviates the need for sunscreen on “clear” days.

To give you an idea of the amount of crud, I walked barefoot outside on my friend's 32nd-floor terrace here in the heart of Jakarta. I counted the steps required to get the bottom of my feet covered with urban grime (see photo to the right) which, due to the height of the terrace, can only have been deposited via settling. It took a mere 17 steps to accumulate the filth you see in the photo, and a full 3 minutes to scrub my feet clean.

What is smog, you ask? “Smog” is a combination of the words smoke and fog and refers to air pollution from cars, coal burning for electricity generation and other industrial sources. There are several different types of smog, but among the most common are photochemical (1) smog, which results from the reaction of some industrial pollutants and sunlight. There is also particulate smog, which consists of the dirt, soot, dust, and other crud that makes it into the air.

Smog is a fundamentally geographic phenomenon because it is trans-regional in effects and the severity of smog is influenced by a number of factors including topography, latitude, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Smog is also a factor of development and counter-intuitively can give us clues as to the prosperity of a city. A significant percentage of smog comes from cars, which are relatively expensive goods. As people make more money in the developing world, one of the first things they buy is a car or motorcycle. Thus more smog might suggest that more people are making the leap into car ownership. In addition, bigger cities produce more smog, and in places where rural-to-urban migration is significant the problem is compounded. Rural-urban migration is seen by development geographers as part of the process whereby countries become rich, and so smog is an unfortunate byproduct of this process.

But smog can gives us clues about the climatological characteristics of a region as well. In the US the place most known for smog is Los Angeles. While it’s true that Los Angeles is a sprawling city with millions of cars (2) traveling millions of miles, there are natural factors at work as well. When the air quality is at its worst in LA it signals the presence of an inversion layer. Normally in the lowest layer of the atmosphere (3) the air temperature decreases as your elevation increases. You’ve probably experienced this if you’ve ever been hiking in the mountains. Under normal circumstances warm air at the surface of the earth can rise up through the atmosphere, where it cools down and is blown out by upper level winds. If there is pollution it will be carried away. However, when a temperature inversion is present it means there is a layer of warmer air higher in the atmosphere. Cool air won’t rise through warmer air, and so the inversion layer acts as a lid on the cooler, and in the case of LA, dirtier air below. Since the air can’t circulate, it accumulates smog (4). At night the air cools thus breaking the inversion layer barrier and allowing the pollutants to dissipate.

Landforms also contribute to smog problems. Another city known for its smog, Mexico City, also periodically experiences an inversion layer. However, Mexico City is in a valley (5) surrounded by high mountains (see the satellite image to the left). The mountains trap the polluted air. The problem is much worse in Mexico City than Los Angeles because there are so many more people and the government has been less able to implement measures to alleviate the problem.

Jakarta's smog is mainly produced by automobiles (70%) and is exacerbated by a temperature inversion and relatively light winds attributable to its location close to the equator. The air doesn't really circulate much here, and so the pollution tends to accumulate. Being close to the equator also ensures that there is a lot of sunlight year-round, which fuels the chemical reactions that lead to photochemical smog.

As yet another demonstration of how much crud there is in the atmosphere, I set up a little experiment. Out on the aforementioned terrace I scrubbed two of the "white" floor tiles as clean as I could get them. You can see the tiles to the right. The letters I taped on the tiles stand for "control" (C) and "experimental" (E). While I'm here in Jakarta I'll check the tiles on a daily basis. I'll clean the control tile daily to serve as a contrast; the experimental tile will be left to accumulate grime. We'll see if there is a noticeable accumulation after a couple of days.

In Hawaii we sometimes experience air pollution as well, but ours is a result of the volcanoes on the Big Island. You’ve probably noticed that on some days this “vog” (volcanic fog) is worse than other days. This is due to geographic factors as well. As you probably know, most of the time the weather in Hawaii is pretty breezy. This is caused by the trade winds, part of the global atmospheric circulation described in a previous post. The trade winds blow the vog away, but when the trades die down the air tends to become stagnant. This is a more frequent occurrence in the winter months. These are the days when it's most humid and hazy outside.

(1) The prefix photo means "light". Can you think of some other "photo" words? What do they have to do with light?

(2) I read once that one-quarter of the surface area of Los Angeles is covered with cars.

(3) The troposphere….I’ll write a future post about the vertical layers of the atmosphere when I can figure out a way to relate it to Indonesia. But for now you can see for yourself in the diagrams below. I took these from Texas A&M's Oceanworld site. The first graph shows the decreasing temperature with elevation in three US cities. Temperature is on the x-axis; elevation is on the y-axis. As you can see, the temperature decreases as you go higher in the troposphere. The second graph is a close-up of the first. Notice on the Dallas and San Diego plots that temperature actually increases with altitude. This is an inversion layer.



The inversion layer in San Diego is caused by an upwelling of cool water in the ocean near the city. The cool water in turn cools the air closest to the ground.

(4) Hawai'i frequently experiences an inversion layer as well. Hawai'i inversion layer is associated with a consistent area of high pressure (sinking air) in the eastern Pacific that is part of the global atmospheric circulation system.

(5) The mountains around Los Angeles also contribute to the smog problems there.

REFERENCES:

Suhadi, D., Awang, M., Hassan, M., Abdullah, R., and Muda, A. 2005. Review of Photochemicla Smog Pollution in Jakarta Metropolitan, Indonesia. American Journal of Environmental Sciences 1:2, pp110-118.

I've Got the KPK on Speed-Dial!

I knew it was just a matter of time before it happened. One of the people I encountered in my dealings with the state apparatus here asked me for a bribe! I’m not going to say who it was or what department was involved, but the experience provides the opportunity to address probably the most important issue facing Indonesia: official corruption. Normally I try not to dwell on the negative aspects of Indonesia because there are so many positive things to focus on, but being here in Jakarta brings out the worst in me.

Corruption in Indonesia is a fact of life. The country routinely ranks near the bottom of corruption surveys. From what I’ve seen, though, not all corruption is created equal. The most pernicious form of corruption is that afflicting the highest levels of government. This includes rigging the bidding process for government contracts, siphoning money from the treasury, and tampering with elections. This type of high-level corruption has been a feature of governance in the archipelago even before there was such a thing as Indonesia., but it really took hold during the last part of the 20th century (see below).

On the other hand, everyday corruption affects the average Dewi and Joko on an almost daily basis. This takes the form of bribes (suap) and unofficial taxes and fees or pungli (short for pungutan liar). I call this structural corruption. Much of this type of corruption stems from the early days of Indonesia, when the future of the nation was all but certain. In an effort to gain support the government dramatically increased the number of people employed in the civil service. The ranks of the bureaucracy swelled faster than the ability of the government to pay, and so enterprising government officials began to pad their incomes by accepting bribes (2). Thus this type of corruption has to be understood as a type of payment for services, and although it is damaging to public trust and the overall health of the nation, it is at least partially rooted in exigency.

THE KPK TOOK MY BABY AWAY!

In an effort to combat the problem, the government established the Corruption Eradication Commission (Komisi Pemberantas Korupsi, KPK) as an independent body with enforcement and adjudication powers. The ambit of powers granted to the KPK is really astonishing; they pretty much exist outside the existing legal and political framework and can do just about anything they want. They can recruit officers from any branch of government, they can seize assets, and they can initiate electronic surveillance.

The KPK has experienced a 100% success rate in the cases it has taken to trial. Between 2004 and 2009, the KPK prosecuted a number of high-level government officials, including

• 17 members of parliament
• 5 ministers and other cabinet level officers
• 5 provincial governors
• 18 mayors and district heads
• 3 ambassadors and 4 consul generals

Opinions are mixed as to the efficacy of the KPK. Many people think that the whole organization is window dressing and aims at middle level corruptors. These folks feel that corruption is such a large part of the political culture here that there is no way to address it. Part of this is due to the sheer scale of the problem. The KPK has limited staff and limited budget, but the complaints are limitless. The KPK also goes after very powerful people; one high-level police official investigated by the KPK likened the agency’s crusade to “a gecko fighting a crocodile” (1). Several plots including very high-level government officials aimed at undermining the credibility of the KPK have been uncovered, and president Susilo Bambang Yudhayono (SBY) has even claimed to have received anonymous messages on his personal cell phone demanding he end the crusade against corruption.

Most foreigners I meet are very pessimistic about corruption here. It’s easy to be gloomy about it when …. However, I have a different view. The rapacious corruption I alluded to earlier really blossomed during the 30-year “New Order” (Orde Baru) rule of strongman president Suharto. Between 1965 and 1998 Suharto used his position to channel money and contracts to his family and close friends, creating a nepotistic oligarchy that essentially controlled the nation’s economy. Because of the authoritarian character of the regime, most people were afraid to speak out, and those that did were quickly silenced or marginalized. Suharto resigned in 1998 amidst social unrest triggered by the Asian Financial Crisis. Now, little more than a decade after Suharto’s fall, it seems to me that people are starting to recover. People are free to speak their minds and civil society is growing rapidly. In my mind all this bodes well for the struggle against corruption here; not only are people waking up but a non-governmental institutional structure is developing. Thus I think it’s just a matter of time before people start challenging structural corruption, and once that process starts I believe it will rapidly gain momentum. All it takes is for one person to stand up in the government office and announce that they refuse to pay the bribe, and others will follow. People are tired of corruption here their willingness to passively accept it is ending.

And there are efforts to clean up government apart from the KPK as well. Solo and Jogja in Central Java are good examples. Jogja's squeaky-clean mayor Herry Zudianto has introduced one-stop shops for business permits the streamlines the process and eliminates opportunities for small-scale graft. Solo mayor Joko Widodo has followed this example and has further changed the relationship between bureaucrats and citizens; previously customers at government offices would meet with officials in private booths, which provides an easy environment for the taking of bribes. Now, though, clerks serve customers from open counters in full view, which literally improves transparency. When interviewed by the Economist, mayor Widodo said that the cost (with bribes) of getting an id card used to range between 25,000-100,000 rupiah ($3-$12); now it's 5,000 rupiah. But more remains to be done. Indonesia needs to increase salaries for civil servants so they aren't under pressure to pad their incomes. The recruiting process also needs to be reformed so that the best and brightest rather than those most willing and able to pay make the ranks.

(1) The police official was denigrating the KPK with this remark, but KPK supporters turned the slogan around, using the Indonesian word for gecko (cicak) as an acronym for "Love Indonesia, Love the KPK" (cinta Indonesia, cinta KPK).

(2) In addition to this, the poor economic policies of the Sukarno regime (Sukarno was president before Suharto) spurred a high rate of inflation while the national debt spiraled. Under these circumstances, the real wages of government employees were no where near the level required to meet household needs.